NSE to launch options on WTI crude, natural gas futures contracts from October 9

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has advanced the launch date for options contracts on WTI crude oil and natural gas futures in the commodity derivatives segment to October 9, from the previously planned date of October 16. On October 9, the exchange will introduce contracts for November, December, and January for WTI crude oil, as well as contracts for November and December for natural gas.

These contracts will be available for trading from Monday through Friday, between 9:00 am to 11:30 pm or 11:55 pm, depending on the US daylight saving time.

Regarding maximum allowable open positions:
- For individual clients participating in WTI contracts, the limit is set at 9,60,000 barrels or 5 percent of the market-wide open position, whichever is higher.
- For a member collectively handling all clients, the limit is 96,00,000 barrels or 20 percent of the market-wide open position.

In the case of natural gas contracts:
- For individuals, the limit is 120,00,000 MMBtu or 5 percent of the market-wide open position.
- For a member collectively managing all clients, the limit is 12,00,00,000 MMBtu or 20 percent of the market-wide open position.

For inquiries related to risk management, clearing, and settlement, members are advised to contact NSE Clearing Limited.

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Biocon Purchases Eywa Pharma's New Jersey Facility for $7.7 Million

Biocon Ltd, a prominent player in the biotechnology sector, has garnered attention with its acquisition of Eywa Pharma Inc's oral solid dosage manufacturing facility situated in Cranbury, New Jersey, USA. This strategic acquisition, executed through their wholly-owned subsidiary, Biocon Generics Inc, comes with a price tag of $7.7 million and holds promising prospects for substantial growth.

In an official filing with the exchange, Biocon underscored the facility's potential to expand its production capacity to a remarkable two billion tablets or capsules annually. Notably, this acquisition also entails a seamless transition of the existing workforce into the Biocon Generics Inc fold.

Siddharth Mittal, serving as the Managing Director and CEO of Biocon, expressed his excitement about this milestone. He highlighted that this acquisition represents Biocon's inaugural FDA-approved facility in the United States, poised to complement their existing manufacturing capabilities and fortify their presence within the US market.

Furthermore, Mittal accentuated the acceleration of Biocon's ability to manufacture oral solid dosage forms for new products, ahead of their originally planned schedule. This strategic move ensures a consistent supply chain by diversifying the company's manufacturing infrastructure. Mittal concluded by emphasizing their commitment to swiftly integrating the acquired facility and expanding their product portfolio in the region.

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Navigating Market Highs: A Guide to Avoiding 10 Common Pitfalls

Amidst the fervor of soaring markets, it's crucial to balance optimism with patience, risk awareness, and avoiding greed. As the collective belief in "This time it's different" gains momentum, staying grounded becomes paramount. In this euphoric atmosphere, news anchors sport "Nifty - 21000" shirts, and Nasdaq teeters on the brink of a historic high. However, maintaining a measured perspective is essential, especially for those who've experienced the ebbs and flows of the market.

With over three decades in the market, I've weathered booms, busts, scams, and crises. As a fund manager, clients often question my cautious approach during market peaks. My response offers two clear options: retrieve your funds or practice patience. Despite pressure to deploy capital aggressively, my investment philosophy remains steadfast.

While I personally remain fully invested (leveraged at 120 percent), a sense of trepidation lingers. Socrates' wisdom, "Fools are always confident, and the wise are always in doubt," resonates, reminding me to balance bullish hopes with prudent caution. This blend of optimism and realism has contributed to our portfolios outperforming with stability over the long term.

Here are the 10 key lessons I've cultivated over the years to shape my investment approach:

1. Be Bullish, Not Foolish: 
Long-term market progress is rooted in innovation, technology, and opportunities. Embrace a perma-bull stance like Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's, but be wary of becoming a pawn to market narratives during euphoric peaks.

2. Breakout Stock Traps:
Be cautious of breakouts driven by hype. While fundamentals drive long-term success, short-term spikes are often manipulated by insiders. Beware of stocks pushed into the spotlight for gains.

3. Estimate Skepticism
Challenge analyst estimates, as they often miss the mark. Focus on valuation, free cash flow, and management intent for sound investment choices.

4. Interpreting Data
Market reactions to data can be counterintuitive. Trust accurate data over convenient interpretations; time will unveil the truth.

5. Future Value Evaluation
Evaluate future promises carefully. Investment decisions should be anchored in valuation, cash flow, and management vision, rather than ephemeral narratives.

6. Overcoming FOMO
Resist the impulse to buy into trending stocks fueled by FOMO. Patience yields better entry points, even for established giants like HDFC or Bajaj.

7. Avoiding Recency Bias
Remember past market trends, like the rise and fall of Pentafour Software and DSQ. Past performance doesn't dictate future outcomes.

8. Herd Mentality Warnings
Beware of crowded trades driven by influencers. Overcrowded sectors often lead to disappointing results, akin to the DotCom bubble or housing crisis.

9. Prioritizing Quality
Avoid favoring penny stocks over established players. Respectable, fairly priced stocks offer better odds than risky alternatives.

10. Objective Evaluation
Avoid emotional attachment to stocks or promoters. Remain rational, even if a stock has performed well in the past.

Bonus: Value Over Price
Invest in quality over low-priced stocks. Focus on substance, not shortcuts, to build a solid portfolio.

By mastering these principles, you'll navigate market waves with confidence and compound wealth wisely. Remember, compounding is indeed the eighth wonder. (Opinions expressed are my own and not reflective of this publication.

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Nifty at 20,000 by December? This Elliot Wave analyst believes so

After a disconnect earlier in the year, Indian markets have started aligning with global markets and are expected to move up, founder of India Charts, a financial services firm, Rohit Srivastava has said, adding he expects the Nifty to hit 20,000 by December end."The US and European markets started to recover from January but Indian markets were disconnected due to the Adani-Hindenburg fiasco. That is now behind us and markets are starting to move up," Srivastava told Moneycontrol on June 2.

He was referring to a report by American short-seller Hindenburg Research in late January that accused the Adani group of stock manipulation and other irregularities. The Indian conglomerate denied the charges but the report triggered a rout in group companies' shares, which have since stabilized. The benchmark Nifty50 has recovered more than 9 percent from the March lows to 18,534 now. The Sensex has gained close to 8.5 percent during the period.

"In March, we also had the highest-ever short position build-up by foreign institutional investors. Most of those positions have been covered now. So my sense is that markets bottomed out in March," Srivastava, who specializes in  Elliot Wave analysis, said. Nifty earnings per share (EPS) for the March quarter came in at Rs 233, 5-6 percent higher than the street's estimates. It was up 14 percent sequentially and 13 percent year-on-year.

Banking & financial services, autos, and metals space performed better than expected, while the rest of the sectors were broadly in line."Be it economic growth or earnings growth, we have done better than most parts of the world," said Srivastava. India's Q4 GDP surprised on the upside at 6.1 percent against an estimate of 5 percent. As India aligns with markets globally, the Nifty could hit 20,000 by December-end and the Nifty Bank scale the coveted 50,000 mark, he said.

"It was a one-and-a-half-year-long consolidation phase, which I would call a clean-up phase. From March onwards, we are seeing pretty strong breath. So this should be a continued bull run for the rest of 2023," he said. On June 2, Indian equity benchmarks closed in the green, with the Sensex up 118 points at 62,547 and the Nifty gaining 46 points to close at 18,534.

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Top 10 Factors that affect the Stock Market on Monday

Bulls kept charging the markets throughout the truncated week that ended April 7, pushing the benchmark indices to sustain their rally. A host of reasons such as higher-than-expected PMI manufacturing data, monthly auto sales numbers, provisional Q4FY23 numbers from banks and NBFCs, FII inflow, and the RBI's surprise pause in interest rate hike with upward revision in growth forecast to 6.5 percent from 6.4 percent aided the surge.

The BSE Sensex climbed 841 points or 1.4 percent to 59,833, and the Nifty50 rose 239 points or 1.4 percent to 17,599, supported by banking and financial services, auto, pharma, and infrastructure stocks.

The broader markets also traded higher with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices gaining 1 percent and 2 percent.

After yet another encouraging week, the momentum is expected to continue along with some volatility in the holiday-shortened week beginning April 10 with focus on corporate earnings, inflation data, global news flows, and FOMC minutes, experts said. 

1) Corporate Earnings

The corporate earnings season for the March FY23 quarter will be kicked off by index heavyweights Infosys on April 13, Tata Consultancy Services on April 12, and HDFC Bank on April 15.

2) CPI Inflation

The consumer price inflation, which measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services, is likely to drop below the 6 percent mark in March on April 12, with moderation in food inflation, against 6.4 percent in the previous month, while core inflation is likely to be sticky around 5.9-6 percent.

3) US Inflation and FOMC Minutes

On the global front, investors will look for cues from US inflation numbers and FOMC minutes scheduled to be released on April 12. Overall, the inflation is expected to moderate further to around 5.3 percent in March against 6 percent in the previous month, while the core inflation is likely to be steady at around 5.5 percent, as per the forecast available on Trading Economics.

4) Global Economic Data Points

5) FII Flow

The consistent FII inflow due to the falling US dollar index and bond yields also aided the markets and experts believe the flow is expected to continue given the hope that Federal Reserve may consider a pause in interest rate hike cycle sooner than later.

6) Oil Prices

Crude oil prices reached to a month's high, with international benchmark Brent crude futures rising to over $85 a barrel, from $79.77 on a week-on-week basis and WTI crude climbing from $75.67 to $80.46 a barrel in the same period, after a surprise OPEC+ output cuts and more-than-expected draw in US oil stocks. But the gains were capped towards the end of week after the weak US economic data raised fears over demand outlook.

7) Technical View

The Nifty has formed bullish candlestick pattern on the weekly scale, with making higher top higher bottom for second consecutive week, and the momentum indicator RSI (relative strength index) giving a nice positive crossover. Also the index climbed back above the 50-week EMA (exponential moving average - 17,426), which is another positive sign.

8) F&O Cues

The weekly Option data indicated that the 17,600 is expected to be a crucial level for the next direction of Nifty50, where we have seen maximum Call as well as Put open interest. Further, the index may find strong resistance around 17,600-17,800 area, whereas 17,500 is expected to be near-term support followed by crucial support at 17,000 levels.

9) India VIX

The volatility cooled down considerably in the last couple of weeks, with the India VIX fell by 8.8 percent for the passing week to 11.79, the lowest weekly closing level since July 2021, from 12.93 levels last week.

10) Corporate Action

Schaeffler India, Britannia Industries, Varun Beverages, Visaka Industries, Edelweiss Financial Services, and Goodluck India will trade ex-dividend, while Emami will turn ex-buyback in the coming week.

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Bank Nifty closes above 43,339 for the first time, next hurdle 42,750

The Bank Nifty opened lower at 42,959, which was also the day's low. After some volatile moves, the index closed 33 points higher at 43,053. The banking index formed a small-bodied bullish candle on daily frame with a bigger upper shadow. It has to hold above 42,750 to make an up move towards 43,339 and 43,500, whereas supports are placed at 42,750 and 42,500 levels, Chandan Taparia, Vice President | Analyst-Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said.

The Nifty hit another high to close above 18,600 for the first time on November 29, extending the uptrend to the sixth consecutive session supported by positive global cues and buying in FMCG, metal and pharma stocks.

The broader market, however, saw profit booking, with the Nifty midcap 50, midcap 100 and smallcap 100 indices declining half a percent each. On the options front, the maximum Call open interest was at 19,000 strike followed by 20,000 strike, with Call writing at 18,800 strike then 18,700 strike. The maximum Put open interest was seen at 18,000 strike followed by 17,000 strike, with Put writing at 18,600 strike then 18,500 strike.

After opening flat at 18,552, which was also the day's low, the index traded higher for the rest of the day. It hit a new high of 18,678 and closed 55 points higher than the previous day at 18,618. The index has formed a bullish candle on the daily charts, making higher highs for the fifth straight session.

"The market is consistently holding higher high and higher low formation which is broadly positive. Hence the support has now shifted to 18,550 from 18,450," Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research ( Retail) at Kotak Securities said.
As long as the index trades above 18,550, the uptrend will continue. The market can move to 18,750-18,800, the expert said.

The data indicates that in near term, the Nifty may trade in range of 18,400 to 18,800. India VIX was up by 0.36 percent to 13.62 levels, but overall it has been cooling off for the last nine weeks and supporting the bulls.

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Top 5 stocks that moved the most on November 25

Benchmark indices ended on a flat note on the first day of the December series amid volatility. At close, the Sensex was up 20.96 points or 0.03% at 62,293.64, and the Nifty was up 28.70 points or 0.16% at 18,512.80.

IDFC | CMP: Rs 80.20 | The scrip added over 2 percent on November 25. According to an exchange filing, the scheme of amalgamation of IDFC Alternatives Limited, IDFC Trustee Company Limited, and IDFC Projects Limited (wholly-owned subsidiary companies of IDFC) into IDFC Limited and their respective shareholders was approved by the NCLT, Chennai Bench on November 22, 2022.

Punjab National Bank | CMP: Rs 53.45 | The stock price jumped over 5 percent after the lender announced t has received the Government of India's approval for a stake sale in UTI Asset Management Company. "The Exchange is hereby informed that the bank has received approval of DIPAM, Ministry of Finance for divestment of entire/part stake in UTI AMC in single or multiple tranches subject to compliance of SEBI regulations," PNB said in a stock exchange.

Axis Bank | CMP: Rs 887 | The scrip ended in the green on November 25. Analysts appeared impressed by the lender's long-term vision at the annual analyst day meeting on November 24. "A convincing analyst meets that Axis Bank could compete on its strengths," said brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities in a note. ICICI Securities said that the management of the lender demonstrated its ability to translate 'intent' to 'action' towards delivering guided outcomes and initiatives undertaken over the last few years to strengthen its capacity to deliver more efficient and sustainable outcomes.

Adani Enterprises | CMP: Rs 3,900.05 | The share price ended marginally lower on November 25. The company said that the board will meet to consider and approve the proposal for raising funds. In a statement to the stock exchanges, Adani Group's flagship firm had said that raising funds would be by the way of a public offering or preferential allotment issue, including a QIP. Billionaire Gautam Adani is also courting sovereign wealth funds in a push to raise roughly $5 billion across his sprawling business empire after lenders asked the group to reduce leverage, as per sources.

India Tourism Development Corp | CMP: Rs 404.55 | The stock hit the 20 percent upper circuit after the government announced it has fixed an indicative value for 'The Ashok' hotel at Rs 7,409 crore under the national monetization program. Presently, ITDC has a network of three Ashok Group Hotels, one Joint Venture Hotel, 1 Restaurant, 5 ATT Units, 15 Duty-Free Shops at Sea ports, and one Sound & Light Show.

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